上海封城後,中國政府在抗疫上不作為和濫用權力的案例頻發,讓許多中國人開始計劃移民到海外,尋求更好的生活。“潤學”等流行詞彙瞬間風靡網絡。但中國當局近日發出聲明,要嚴格限制中國公民非必要出境活動,嚴格出入境證件審批簽發。
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推特上,一些觀察人士將中國不斷與外國切斷聯繫的政策比作北韓,也懷疑這種治理疫情方式的有效性。
美國亞洲問題學者劉洋(Alexander Parini)寫道:“中國和外面世界的連接正快速降低,(中國)國內措施開始限制進出中國的行動。政府最新的決定可能給想要在海外學習或移民海外的中國公民帶來嚴重的影響。”
Ties between #China and the outside world are quickly thinning as domestic measures expand to limit movement in and out of the country. The government’s latest decision could have serious implications for #Chinese citizens wanting to study abroad or immigrate overseas. https://t.co/kd8zON7gTD
— Alexander Parini 刘洋 (@AlexParini) May 13, 2022
中國和中亞歷史學者米華健(James Millward)則表示:“任何關注新疆的人都已經見識過那裡的壓迫中、處於核心的仇外因素:當局把與外國的聯繫/去外國旅行看作是“極端”的,更甚於宗教。現在這被用到了其他中國公民的身上?孤立、企圖自給自足的新時代?”
Anyone following Xinjiang will have seen the central xenophobic element in the oppression there: authorities treat foreign contacts / travel as "extremist" more than religion. Now applied to other PRC citizens? New era of isolation, attempted autarky? https://t.co/Hhp31acCHJ
— James Millward 米華健 (@JimMillward) May 14, 2022
經濟顧問、中國觀察人士程致宇(Patrick Chovanec)也質疑中國鎖國的經濟可持續性。
“旅行中斷兩年被看作是商業上的不方便。長期的旅行壁壘則會讓當前對中國經濟至關重要的貿易和投資流動無法以目前的狀態持續下去。”
A two-year hiatus in travel is seen as a business inconvenience. Long-term barriers to travel will make the kind of trade and investment flows that are absolutely central to today’s Chinese economy unsustainable in their present form.
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) May 16, 2022
彭博社編輯桑迪·亨德利(Sandy Hendry)問道:“這到底是新冠管控還是回到冷戰?”
Covid control or are we back to the Cold War? https://t.co/zbEJ952GAk
— Sandy Hendry (@SandyHendry) May 13, 2022
中國稱,嚴格限制出入境的原因之一是為了防止病毒傳播,但耶魯大學社會和自然科學教授尼古拉斯·克里斯塔其斯(Nicholas Christakis)則認為:“疫情已經持續兩年了,這個戰略沒道理。”
“兩年前,中國幾乎是動用了‘社會核武器’來停止病毒的傳播。但在當下,這是一個愚蠢的戰略。
Two years ago, China essentially detonated a “social nuclear weapon” to stop the virus. But this is a foolish strategy at this point. #apollosarrow https://t.co/x2YXMFPP8s
— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) May 13, 2022
金融作者坦納·布朗(Tanner Brown)直接表示:“如果這真的發生了,那會是一個只有北韓這樣的監獄國家才會做的事。”
3/4 If this happens it would be a harrowing, North Korea-esque prison-state move. Reported motives range from "virus control" to preventing outbound Chinese from seeing how openly the rest of the world is operating.
— Tanner Brown (@luoshanji) May 15, 2022
前美國外交官陳天宗(Curtis Chin)則質疑該政策是否適用於中國的特權階層。
“值得觀察的是,是不是所有中國公民都會被平等對待?還是那些有錢、有關係、有名氣的人依然能出國。”
Reuters: #China 🇨🇳 to "strictly limit" unnecessary overseas travels by Chinese citizens to combat COVID. https://t.co/n3sB9ry6DgWill be interesting to see if all Chinese citizens are treated equally; or will those with the currency, connections & clout still travel abroad.
— 🚶🏻Curtis S. Chin (@CurtisSChin) May 12, 2022
也有人看到了事情的光明面,認為大量想要移民的中國年輕人將成為美國增強國力的禮物。
智庫“進步機構”的創始人埃列克·斯塔普(Alec Stapp)寫道:“中國的年輕精英越來越想要逃離他們的國家,我們應該幫助他們。美國想要保持領先於中國的最好方式就是讓他們的人才搬到我們這裡。”
China’s young elite increasingly want to flee the country and we should help them.The best way for the US to stay ahead of China is to let their talent move here. pic.twitter.com/UrTvlSjWGy
— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) May 7, 2022